Contributor: Nolan Howell
Did you just recently come into some fortune upon the last wishes of a dead relative that you met twice in your life? Need to earn some quick cash after that little misunderstanding with Bernie Madoff?
Welcome to Undercard Superstar’s guide to gambling, where you can get po’ in one night if you play your cards right! As your resident financial adviser in MMA gambling, it is my duty to inform you that nobody affiliated with Undercard Superstar is accountable for any losses. In fact, you probably brought it upon yourself for reading this. So, seriously, you’ve been warned.
This time around, we are looking at UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Shields. The card is filled with the obvious no-names to appease the Brazilian crowd, but also features some gems on the main card that may make the show worthwhile.
Fortunately for you, I am here to ensure that you will never be plagued with the Brazilian witchcraft hex that is Anderson Silva money. Let’s get to it!
All lines provided by Bovada.
- Alan Patrick: -260 vs. Garett Whiteley: +200
- Iliarde Santos: -130 vs. Chris Cariaso: Even
- Yan Cabral: -280 vs. David Mitchell: +220
- Ildemar Alcantara: -350 vs. Igor Araujo: +265
If you’re feeling chancy, there is some value here. Excluding the Alcantara vs. Araujo bout, there is potential in every fight for the underdog. Examining Whiteley vs. Patrick, both men are the kings of crushing cans. Patrick has fought in bigger Brazilian promotions such as Bitetti Combat and Jungle Fight, but he still only fought subpar competition once getting to those levels. Whiteley is a product of the very iffy midwestern US regional circuit, but he has a win over UFC veteran Jason Gilliam. Additionally, while half of Patrick’s wins have come by decision, Whiteley has never went the distance and that can play a factor as well. If you’re somewhat skeptical about international regional promotions compared to the US regionals, there might be a chance for Whiteley to take this one.
The second fight is one where I fancy the underdog as well, but maybe not for a singular bet. Cariaso has been battle-tested in Zuffa for quite a while in two divisions and hasn’t been thrown a bone at flyweight. This is his shot and he should take advantage of it. Look for him as a good value in a parlay.
Finally, Cabral vs. Mitchell is a fight with upset potential. While Cabral is a Nova Uniao product with some slick grappling, his best win by leaps and bounds is against a decrepit Kazushi Sakuraba. Mitchell has some solid grappling, but he has also proven to be capable on the feet in his bout with Simeon Thoresen and has fought stiff competition in Paulo Thiago and Mike Pierce. Mitchell is probably the more well-rounded fighter here and I am looking at him in a small underdog parlay or singular bet.
- Mike Pierce: -285 vs. Rousimar Palhares: +225
- TJ Dillashaw: -240 vs. Raphael Assuncao: +190
- Fabio Maldonado: -155 vs. Joey Beltran: +125
- Thiago Silva: -375 vs. Matt Hamill +285
- Erick Silva: -260 vs. Dong Hyun Kim: +200
- Demian Maia: -285 vs. Jake Shields: +225
The main card is pretty much aligned correctly in terms of odds, with few underdogs having a route to victory and the favorites being a little too heavy to parlay. Because of my personal love for him (which also makes me the worst gambler ever), I am going to parlay Maldonado in a small group of heavy favorites to make a bit of change off his low favorite status.
As far as underdogs, the only two I potentially like here are Kim and Shields, although the former has a significantly larger chance to victory than the latter. Kim can likely blanket Silva and tire him out with his relentless grappling. Shields could potentially wall-and-stall a decision in a ridiculously ugly fight, but Maia just matches up too well everywhere else to be confident in laying any money on Shields.
While most Brazilian cards are sketchy in terms of name value, there is enough name recognition here to potentially make some cash.